AXNT20 KNHC 101131
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N2W 5N10W 3N24W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 1W-26W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
SW AFRICA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED E OUT OF THE GULF TO OVER THE W
ATLC ONLY COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS LOWER PRESSURE
MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE GULF. THE WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES
AND WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH HAS MOVED NE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXITING
THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC TO OVER TEXAS AND CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 24N
E OF 92W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SE TO S SURFACE WINDS
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
INLAND OVER THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS IN THE GULF
WATERS N OF 28N FROM APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA TO MOBILE ALABAMA.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 91W TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF LATER TONIGHT WITH A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT
MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THU MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 16N65W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO 14N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N E OF 66W AND THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
29N70W AND EXTENDS W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING THE
AREA WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE WEAK UPPER FLOW EXTENDING
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N68W TO 24N80W THEN OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 25N FROM 45W-65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING TO 28N34W BECOMING STATIONARY
AND CONTINUING ALONG 22N47W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE N
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE ENTIRE FRONT.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED W OF THE FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N52W TO 23N57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH WSW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N24W
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 10N42W WHICH IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


forecast by WALLACE
updated at 705 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

AXPZ20 KNHC 101536
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 10 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W 06N84W 06N115W 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 180 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 77W TO 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W
AND 130W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW CONUS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO 28N125W TO 22N140W. A STRONG JETSTREAM IS SE
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH WESTERLY CORE WINDS OF
125-170 KT FROM 20N140W 25N125W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS
WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM SE OF THE JET. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT E-SE.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
08N114W. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...WHILE E OF 114W MOSTLY
STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST N OF 08N...INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
AT THE SURFACE...CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA N
OF 10N W OF 105W. A LARGE AREA OF NE TO E TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT
IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ALSO...A PAIR
OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED S OF 09N AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AXIS...ONE ALONG 118W AND THE OTHER ALONG 125W. THESE
REMAIN THE FOCUS OF ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 116W AND 130W.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


forecast by HUFFMAN