JustWeather.com

ABNT20 KNHC 031158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 285
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF GASTON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


forecast by FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABPZ20 KNHC 031142
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MI SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO LAND IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.


forecast by FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
updated at 500 AM PDT FRI SEP 3 2010

ACPN50 PHFO 031145
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.


forecast by RYSHKO
updated at 200 AM HST FRI SEP 3 2010

ATLANTIC PUBLIC/MARINE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS
WTNT32 KNHC 031145
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
...HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE OUTER BANKS LATER THIS MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 73.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ECUM SECUM
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND
EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER
* CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. DARE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT NORTH CAROLINA JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS
LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.


forecast by FORECASTER AVILA
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

WTNT22 KNHC 030849
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA...AND FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ABLEMARLE SOUND.
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM
SECUM...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CAPE BRETON
ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ECUM SECUM
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND
EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER
* CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 74.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 300SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 74.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 74.4W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.8N 72.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.6N 68.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 45.9N 64.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 50.7N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 74.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z


forecast by FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT33 KNHC 031155
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REACHES FIONA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN THIS CASE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER INDICATE THAT FIONA COULD BE STARTING TO WEAKEN. SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1010 MB...29.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.


forecast by FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
updated at 800 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010

WTNT23 KNHC 030831
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 66.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 66.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 66.8W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.8N 66.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 34.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.4N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 41.5N 58.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 66.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z


forecast by FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT82 KNHC 031145
TCVAT2
EARL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
.HURRICANE EARL
NCZ017-095-102-103-104-031500-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W
NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W


forecast by MAZ019-020-021-022-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WESTPORT-MA 41.45N 71.20W
HULL-MA 42.30N 70.91W


forecast by DEZ003-004-MDZ024-025-NJZ013-014-020-022-023-024-025-026-027-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

VAZ095-097-098-099-100-031500-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W
SANDY-HOOK-NJ 40.46N 74.00W


forecast by NYZ078-079-080-081-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W
PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W


forecast by CTZ010-011-012-RIZ002-004-005-006-007-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W
WESTPORT-MA 41.45N 71.20W


forecast by MAZ007-015-016-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
HULL-MA 42.30N 70.91W
MERRIMACK-RIVER-MA 42.84N 70.82W


forecast by MEZ029-030-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
STONINGTON-ME 44.16N 68.67W
EASTPORT-ME 44.92N 67.05W


forecast by NJZ005-006-011-012-NYZ071-072-073-074-075-076-077-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1007.100903T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
SANDY-HOOK-NJ 40.46N 74.00W
FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W


forecast by CTZ009-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1007.100903T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W
NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W


forecast by MEZ023-024-025-026-027-028-NHZ014-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1007.100903T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
MERRIMACK-RIVER-MA 42.84N 70.82W
STONINGTON-ME 44.16N 68.67W


forecast by MAZ023-024-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.04W
MARTHAS-VINEYARD 41.38N 70.63W


forecast by RIZ008-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BLOCK-ISLAND 41.16N 71.56W


forecast by NCZ047-080-081-093-094-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W


forecast by NCZ015-016-046-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
EAST-ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.35W


forecast by VAZ091-093-094-096-031500-
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W


forecast by ATTN...WFO...AKQ...PHI...MHX...BOX...OKX...GYX...CAR...
updated at 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FKNT22 KNHC 030856
TCANT2
HURRICANE EARL ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20100903/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: EARL
NR: 036
PSN: N3518 W07400
MOV: NNE 16KT
C: 0955HPA
MAX WIND: 090KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 031500 N3658 W07256
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 085KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 032100 N3845 W07131
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 085KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 040300 N4038 W06946
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 080KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 040900 N4240 W06745
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 070KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20100903/1500Z
FKNT23 KNHC 030831
TCANT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20100903/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: FIONA
NR: 015
PSN: N2806 W06642
MOV: N 11KT
C: 1005HPA
MAX WIND: 045KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 031500 N2914 W06617
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 032100 N3021 W06549
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 040300 N3127 W06516
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 040900 N3233 W06440
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20100903/1500Z
WOCN31 CWHX 031200
HURRICANE EARL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT FRIDAY
03 SEPTEMBER 2010.
.. EARL NOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS..HEADING FOR THE MARITIMES
ON SATURDAY..
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 N
AND LONGITUDE 73.6 W... ABOUT 110 NAUTICAL MILES OR 205 KM
EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 955
MB. EARL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 03 9.00 AM 36.2N 73.6W 955 90 167
SEP 03 3.00 PM 37.9N 72.2W 956 90 167
SEP 03 9.00 PM 40.4N 70.1W 957 90 167
SEP 04 3.00 AM 42.0N 68.5W 960 80 148
SEP 04 9.00 AM 43.9N 66.6W 968 70 130 TRANSITIONING
SEP 04 3.00 PM 46.4N 64.1W 972 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 04 9.00 PM 48.7N 62.4W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 3.00 AM 51.1N 61.1W 980 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 9.00 AM 53.1N 60.1W 983 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 3.00 PM 54.6N 59.1W 985 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 9.00 PM 56.0N 58.3W 986 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 3.00 AM 57.1N 57.9W 987 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 9.00 AM 58.4N 57.8W 988 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 3.00 PM 59.3N 58.7W 990 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 9.00 PM 59.8N 59.6W 992 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR HALIFAX..LUNENBURG..QUEENS..
SHELBURNE..YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA.
ON TOP OF THESE WATCHES... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED
FOR MOST AREAS OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA.. CAPE BRETON ISLAND.. SOUTHEAST NEW
BRUNSWICK.. AND ILES DE LA MADELEINE.
THESE TROPICAL WARNINGS ARE MATCHED WITH CORRESPONDING
PUBLIC WIND WARNINGS FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 90 AND 110 KM/H.
A LES SUITES WIND WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF CAPE BRETON ISLAND.
RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR AMOUNTS FROM 50 TO 70 MM ARE POSTED FOR
MOST PARTS OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN OUR TIMING IS ABOUT PLUS OR MINUS 6 HOURS. WE
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION HENCE OUR DECISION TO ISSUE TROPICAL
WARNINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY WE WILL DETERMINE WHERE
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE PLACED..IF REQUIRED. IF HURRICANE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.. THEN OUR FORECAST WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
130 KM/H FOR THE AFFECTED REGIONS.
THE PUBLIC SHOULD REMAIN TUNED IN FOR UPDATED FORECASTS EVERY
6 HOURS.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNINGS NOW POSTED FOR LURCHER AND BROWNS BANK.
FOR THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT.. STORMS OR GALES ISSUED
FOR REMIANING WATERS EXCEPT LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE WESTERN
HALF OF ANTICOSTI. OVER THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT..
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MOST WESTERN WATERS.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF EARL HIGH WAVES AND POUNDING SURF CAN BE
EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST-FACING COASTLINES.
THE THREAT OF STORM SURGE FLOODING IS NOT GREAT FOR REGIONS AROUND
THE BAY OF FUNDY DUE TO A RUN OF NEAP TIDES. THE GREATEST SURGE
THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA..AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF ST LAWRENCE WHICH INCLUDES THE NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEORLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
GOES AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYELESS EARL SHOWING LITTLE
OBVIOUS SIGNS OF WEAKENING. ASCAT SCANS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA ARE
INDICATING EARL HAS A LARGE WIND RADII.
B. PROGNOSTIC
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS A CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS
CENTRED ON NOVA SCOTIA. SO NO CHANGE IN OUR PROGNOSIS
IS PRESENTED.
DESPITE EARL WEAKENING TO A CAT 2 LAST NIGHT.. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED INDICATIONS ARE THAT EARL'S WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING.
ALSO THE ABNORMALLY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE MARITIMES
WILL ALLOW EARL TO HOLD ONTO ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER. WATER
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF EARL ARE ABOVE NORMAL BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES AND
HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY WARM DURING THE LATTER PART OF AUGUST. THESE
TWO FACTORS COME INTO PLAY IN OUR FORECAST OF INTENSITY EARL.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN EARL'S TRACK.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
ASYMMETRIES IN THE WIND AND RAIN FIELDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STORM
MOVES TOWARD THE MARITIMES. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD
THE FRONT AND LEFT SIDE OF THE STORM WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
CONCENTRATED TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM TRACK. SOME COMPUTER
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING EAST OF THE STORM INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND AS EARL NEARS..SIMILAR TO A WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDING RAINFALL POTENTIAL..FOR A STORM OF THIS NATURE..2500
DIVIDED BY TWICE THE STORM SPEED IN KNOTS IS A RULE OF THUMB FOR
RAINFALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CORE. THAT ROUGHLY EQUATES TO
40 TO 70 MM POTENTIAL. THESE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH
THE OUTPUT OF LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS.
SOME RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED THIS MORNING BASED ON THE
TRADITIONAL 50 MM IN 24 HOURS CRITERIA. THROUGH THE DAY..
FURTHER ASSESSMENTS WILL BE MADE ON WHERE TO PLACE ADDITONAL
RAINFALL WARNINGS BASED ON THE NEW AND ADDITIONAL CRITERIA
OF 25 MM/HR.
D. MARINE WEATHER
TRAPPED FETCH MODELS AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS PLUS FORECASTER
EXPERIENCE SHOW THAT 10 METRE OR MORE SEAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLANK
OF EARL IS REASONABLE.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
03/12Z 180 180 120 150 100 110 100 100 60 60 60 45
03/18Z 180 180 130 150 100 110 100 100 60 60 60 45
04/00Z 200 200 140 140 100 110 100 90 60 60 50 40
04/06Z 210 210 140 130 100 110 90 80 60 60 35 40
04/12Z 210 210 140 120 100 120 75 70 35 40 20 20
04/18Z 220 220 160 110 100 140 60 60 0 20 0 0
05/00Z 240 240 210 100 90 80 60 50 0 0 0 0
05/06Z 270 330 300 75 60 60 40 40 0 0 0 0
05/12Z 300 420 480 60 0 60 40 0 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 330 420 480 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 360 420 480 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 390 420 480 210 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 420 420 480 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 420 420 420 420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 420 420 420 420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END CAMPBELL/FOGARTY/BORGEL
WOCN31 CWHX 030900
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6.00 AM ADT
FRIDAY 03 SEPTEMBER 2010.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT
AT 6.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
35.3 N AND LONGITUDE 74.0 W... ABOUT 75 NAUTICAL MILES OR 140 KM
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.
EARL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS... 30
KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167
KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 955 MB.
PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
END CAMPBELL
WOCN31 CWHX 030644 CCA
HURRICANE EARL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.44 AM ADT FRIDAY
03 SEPTEMBER 2010.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 6.00 AM ADT
CORRECTION MADE TO WIND SPEED FOR SEPTEMBER 04 3.00 PM POSITION.
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 N
AND LONGITUDE 74.3 W... ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES OR 135 KM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 955
MB. EARL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 21 KNOTS... 39 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 03 3.00 AM 34.6N 74.3W 955 90 167
SEP 03 9.00 AM 36.6N 73.4W 955 90 167
SEP 03 3.00 PM 38.6N 71.7W 956 90 167
SEP 03 9.00 PM 40.4N 70.1W 957 90 167
SEP 04 3.00 AM 42.2N 68.3W 960 80 148
SEP 04 9.00 AM 44.1N 66.6W 968 70 130 TRANSITIONING
SEP 04 3.00 PM 46.8N 64.3W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 04 9.00 PM 49.1N 62.9W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 3.00 AM 51.3N 61.6W 980 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 9.00 AM 53.3N 60.6W 983 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 3.00 PM 54.9N 59.6W 985 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 9.00 PM 56.1N 58.5W 986 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 3.00 AM 57.3N 57.8W 987 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 9.00 AM 58.7N 57.7W 988 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 3.00 PM 60.2N 58.2W 990 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 9.00 PM 61.7N 58.7W 992 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 3.00 AM 63.2N 59.2W 992 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
D. MARINE WEATHER
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
03/06Z 180 180 120 150 100 110 110 100 60 60 60 45
03/12Z 180 180 130 150 100 110 100 100 60 60 60 45
03/18Z 180 180 130 150 100 110 100 100 60 60 60 45
04/00Z 200 200 140 140 100 110 100 90 60 60 50 40
04/06Z 210 210 140 130 100 110 90 80 60 60 35 40
04/12Z 210 210 140 120 100 120 75 70 35 40 20 20
04/18Z 220 220 160 110 100 140 60 60 0 20 0 0
05/00Z 240 240 210 100 90 80 60 50 0 0 0 0
05/06Z 270 330 300 75 60 60 40 40 0 0 0 0
05/12Z 300 420 480 60 0 60 40 0 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 330 420 480 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 360 420 480 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 390 420 480 210 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 420 420 480 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 420 420 420 420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 420 420 420 420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 420 420 420 420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END CAMPBELL
WOCN31 CWHX 030600
HURRICANE EARL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT FRIDAY
03 SEPTEMBER 2010.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 6.00 AM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 N
AND LONGITUDE 74.3 W... ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES OR 135 KM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 955
MB. EARL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 03 3.00 AM 34.6N 74.3W 955 90 167
SEP 03 9.00 AM 36.6N 73.4W 955 90 167
SEP 03 3.00 PM 38.6N 71.7W 956 90 167
SEP 03 9.00 PM 40.4N 70.1W 957 90 167
SEP 04 3.00 AM 42.2N 68.3W 960 80 148
SEP 04 9.00 AM 44.1N 66.6W 968 70 130 TRANSITIONING
SEP 04 3.00 PM 46.8N 64.3W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING
SEP 04 9.00 PM 49.1N 62.9W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 3.00 AM 51.3N 61.6W 980 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 9.00 AM 53.3N 60.6W 983 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 3.00 PM 54.9N 59.6W 985 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 9.00 PM 56.1N 58.5W 986 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 3.00 AM 57.3N 57.8W 987 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 9.00 AM 58.7N 57.7W 988 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 3.00 PM 60.2N 58.2W 990 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 9.00 PM 61.7N 58.7W 992 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 3.00 AM 63.2N 59.2W 992 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WATCHES ARE CONTINUED FOR QUEENS.. SHELBURNE..
YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
NEW BRUNSWICK. HOWEVER TROPICAL STROM WATCHES WILL NOW
BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE CAPE BRETON AND ILES DE MADELAINE.
IN ADDITION TO THESE WATCHES... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR MOST AREAS OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA
PLUS THE WESTERN HALF OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
THESE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED WITH CORRESPONDING WIND WARNINGS
IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR GUSTS TO 100 KM/H.
RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR AMOUNTS FROM 50 TO 70 MM WILL SOON BE
POSTED FOR FORECAST REGIONS ALONG AND JUST LEFT
OF THE TRACK FOR THE MARITIMES. A CALL WITH THE MONTREAL
OFFICE WILL CONFIRM WHETHER RAINFALL WARNINGS WILL BE POSTED
FOR THEIR FORECAST REGIONS NORTH OF THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN OUR TIMING IS ABOUT PLUS OR
MINUS 6 HOURS. WE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION HENCE OUR
DECISION TO ISSUE TROPICAL WARNINGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATER TODAY WE WILL DETERMINE WHERE HURRICANE WARNINGS
WILL BE PLACED..IF REQUIRED. IF HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.. THEN OUR FORECAST WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
130 KM/H FOR THE AFFECTED REGIONS.
THE PUBLIC SHOULD REMAIN TUNED IN FOR UPDATED FORECASTS EVERY 6
HOURS.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNINGS NOW POSTED FOR LURCHER AND BROWNS BANK.
FOR THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT.. STORMS OR GALES ISSUED
FOR REMIANING WATERS EXCEPT LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE WESTERN
HALF OF ANTICOSTI. OVER THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT..
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR NORTHEAST GULF AND
GULF PORT AU PORT.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF EARL HIGH WAVES AND POUNDING SURF CAN BE
EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST-FACING COASTLINES.
THE THREAT OF STORM SURGE FLOODING IS NOT GREAT FOR REGIONS AROUND
THE BAY OF FUNDY DUE TO A RUN OF NEAP TIDES. THE GREATEST SURGE
THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA..AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ST LAWRENCE WHICH INCLUDES THE NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEORLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
GOES SATELLITE HAS GONE INTO ECLIPSE MODE BUT BEFORE THAN..
EARL SHOWS ITSELF AS A MASSIVE SWIRLING CIRCULATION WITH AN
OBSCURED EYE. RECENT AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE WOULD PLACE THE
SURFACE WIND AT 90 KNOTS SO EARL HAS WEAKENED TO A CAT 2.
B. PROGNOSTIC
ONCE AGAIN.. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS A CLUSTER OF
SOLUTIONS CENTRED ON NOVA SCOTIA. SO NO CHANGE IN OUR PROGNOSIS
IS PRESENTED.
DESPITE EARL WEAKENING TO A CAT 2, THE ABNORMALLY HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE MARITIMES WILL ALOW EARL IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD ONTO ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER. WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF
EARL ARE ABOVE NORMAL BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES AND HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENTLY WARM DURING THE LATTER PART OF
AUGUST. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COME INTO PLAY
IN OUR FORECAST OF INTENSITY EARL.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AS IT
GIVE EARL SOME PLAY IN ITS TRACK.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
ASYMMETRIES IN THE WIND AND RAIN FIELDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STORM
MOVES TOWARD THE MARITIMES. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD
THE FRONT AND LEFT SIDE OF THE STORM AND HIGHEST WINDS CONCENTRATED
TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM TRACK. SOME OF COMPUTER MODELS SHOW A
BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING EAST OF THE STORM INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WHEN
IT ARRIVES..SIMILAR TO A WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDING RAINFALL POTENTIAL..FOR A STORM OF THIS NATURE..2500
DIVIDED BY TWICE THE STORM SPEED IN KNOTS IS A RULE OF THUMB FOR
RAINFALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CORE. THAT ROUGHLY EQUATES TO
40 TO 70 MM POTENTIAL. THESE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
OUTPUT OF LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE TO BE POSTED THIS MORNING BASED ON THE
TRADITIONAL 50 MM IN 24 HOURS CRITERIA. THROUGH THE DAY..
FURTHER ASSESSMENTS WILL BE MADE ON WHERE TO PALCE ADDITONAL
RAINFALL WARNINGS BEASED ON THE NEW AND ADDITIONAL CRITERIA
OF 25 MM/HR.
D. MARINE WEATHER
TRAP FETCH MODELS AND OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS PLUS FORECASTER
EXPERIENCE SHOW THAT 15 METRE SEAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLANK
OF EARLY IS REASONABLE.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
03/06Z 180 180 120 150 100 110 110 100 60 60 60 45
03/12Z 180 180 130 150 100 110 100 100 60 60 60 45
03/18Z 180 180 130 150 100 110 100 100 60 60 60 45
04/00Z 200 200 140 140 100 110 100 90 60 60 50 40
04/06Z 210 210 140 130 100 110 90 80 60 60 35 40
04/12Z 210 210 140 120 100 120 75 70 35 40 20 20
04/18Z 220 220 160 110 100 140 60 60 0 0 0 0
05/00Z 240 240 210 100 90 80 60 50 0 0 0 0
05/06Z 270 330 300 75 60 60 40 40 0 0 0 0
05/12Z 300 420 480 60 0 60 40 0 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 330 420 480 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 360 420 480 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 390 420 480 210 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 420 420 480 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 420 420 420 420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 420 420 420 420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 420 420 420 420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END CAMPBELL/HATT
WTCN31 CWHX 031204 CCA
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:04 AM ADT FRIDAY 3 SEPTEMBER 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= PRINCE COUNTY P.E.I.
HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST
HALIFAX COUNTY - EAST OF PORTERS LAKE
LUNENBURG COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY
ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
KINGS COUNTY
HANTS COUNTY
COLCHESTER COUNTY - TRURO AND SOUTH
COLCHESTER COUNTY - COBEQUID BAY
CUMBERLAND COUNTY - MINAS SHORE
CUMBERLAND COUNTY NORTH AND COBEQUID PASS
COLCHESTER COUNTY NORTH
PICTOU COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY P.E.I.
KINGS COUNTY P.E.I.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
65 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS....REACHING EASTERNMOST AREAS BY NOON SATURDAY.
WIND GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 100 KM/H. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ABOVE REGIONS WINDS GUSTING TO 90 KM/H OR HIGHER ARE
LIKELY.
BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL
FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 9 AM ADT THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED ABOUT 205 KM
EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND IS MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 37 KM/H. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK EARL IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OR THE FUNDY COAST
OF NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING.
IT IS LIKELY THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA WILL HAVE WIND
GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 KM/H. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...UP AS FAR AS THE EASTERN SHORE...THE BAY OF
FUNDY REGION AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY REACH 90 KM/H.
HEAVY RAIN...AMOUNTING TO 40 TO 70 MILLIMETRES WILL LIKELY FALL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY AS EARL TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION....WITH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHWESTERN
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE THESE
AMOUNTS. OVER MANY AREAS OF THE MARITIMES VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
LIKELY...WITH 25 MILLIMETRES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN ONE HOUR.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE COASTLINES. HOWEVER
SINCE THE TIDAL CYCLE IS NOT EXTREME..SEVERE STORM SURGE IMPACTS
ARE NOT AS LIKELY AS THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE.
HOWEVER HIGH WAVES AND POUNDING SURF CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING COASTLINES AROUND PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF EARL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ENVIRONMENT CANADA FORECASTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION.
END/..
WTCN31 CWHX 031157
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 8:57 AM ADT FRIDAY 3 SEPTEMBER 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= PRINCE COUNTY P.E.I.
HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST
HALIFAX COUNTY - EAST OF PORTERS LAKE
LUNENBURG COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY
ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
KINGS COUNTY
HANTS COUNTY
COLCHESTER COUNTY - TRURO AND SOUTH
COLCHESTER COUNTY - COBEQUID BAY
CUMBERLAND COUNTY - MINAS SHORE
CUMBERLAND COUNTY NORTH AND COBEQUID PASS
COLCHESTER COUNTY NORTH
PICTOU COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY P.E.I.
KINGS COUNTY P.E.I.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
65 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS....REACHING EASTERNMOST AREAS BY NOON SATURDAY.
WIND GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 100 KM/H. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ABOVE REGIONS WINDS GUSTING TO 90 KM/H OR HIGHER ARE
LIKELY.
BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL
FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 9 AM ADT THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED ABOUT 220 KM
EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND IS MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 37 KM/H. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK EARL IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OR THE FUNDY COAST
OF NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY MORNING.
IT IS LIKELY THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA WILL HAVE WIND
GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 KM/H. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...UP AS FAR AS THE EASTERN SHORE...THE BAY OF
FUNDY REGION AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY REACH 90 KM/H.
HEAVY RAIN...AMOUNTING TO 40 TO 70 MILLIMETRES WILL LIKELY FALL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY AS EARL TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION....WITH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHWESTERN
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE THESE
AMOUNTS. OVER MANY AREAS OF THE MARITIMES VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
LIKELY...WITH 25 MILLIMETRES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN ONE HOUR.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE COASTLINES. HOWEVER
SINCE THE TIDAL CYCLE IS NOT EXTREME..SEVERE STORM SURGE IMPACTS
ARE NOT AS LIKELY AS THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE.
HOWEVER HIGH WAVES AND POUNDING SURF CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING COASTLINES AROUND PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF EARL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ENVIRONMENT CANADA FORECASTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION.
END/..
WTCN31 CWHX 030749
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:49 AM ADT FRIDAY 3 SEPTEMBER 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST
=NEW= HALIFAX COUNTY - EAST OF PORTERS LAKE
=NEW= LUNENBURG COUNTY
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY
=NEW= ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
=NEW= KINGS COUNTY
=NEW= HANTS COUNTY
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY - TRURO AND SOUTH
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY - COBEQUID BAY
=NEW= CUMBERLAND COUNTY - MINAS SHORE
=NEW= CUMBERLAND COUNTY NORTH AND COBEQUID PASS
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY NORTH
=NEW= PICTOU COUNTY
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY P.E.I.
=NEW= KINGS COUNTY P.E.I..
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
65 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS....REACHING EASTERNMOST AREAS BY NOON SATURDAY.
WINDS GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 100 KM/H. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ABOVE FORECAST REGIONS WINDS GUSTING TO 90 KM/H OR HIGHER ARE
LIKELY.
BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL
FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 3 AM THIS MORNING THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED ABOUT
135 KILOMETRES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 30 KM/H. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK EARL IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OR
THE FUNDY COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
IT IS LIKELY THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA WILL HAVE WIND
GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 KM/H.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...UP AS FAR AS THE
EASTERN SHORE...AND THE BAY OF FUNDY MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REACH 90 KM/H.
HEAVY RAIN...AMOUNTING TO 40 TO 70 MILLIMETRES WILL LIKELY FALL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY AS EARL TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION....WITH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHWESTERN
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE THESE
AMOUNTS. OVER MANY AREAS OF THE MARITIMES VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
LIKELY...WITH 25 MILLIMETRES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN ONE HOUR.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE COASTLINES.
HOWEVER SINCE THE TIDAL CYCLE IS NOT EXTREME SEVERE STORM SURGE
IMPACTS ARE ARE NOT AS LIKELY AS THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE.
HOWEVER HIGH WAVES AND POUNDING SURF CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF EARL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ENVIRONMENT CANADA FORECASTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION.
END/..
END OF REPORT

EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS
WTPZ35 KNHC 030847
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 109.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.


forecast by FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
updated at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010

WTPZ25 KNHC 030847
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 109.6W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 109.6W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.4W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 109.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z


forecast by FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

FOPZ15 KNHC 030847
PWSEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 4 13 28 29 40 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 67 56 49 44 40 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 30 30 22 26 19 NA NA
HURRICANE X X 1 2 1 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)


forecast by FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

FKPZ25 KNHC 030847
TCAPZ5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20100903/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: TEN-E
NR: 001
PSN: N1942 W10936
MOV: NW 07KT
C: 1001HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 031500 N1958 W11024
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 030KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 032100 N2012 W11107
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 030KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 040300 N2024 W11146
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 030KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 040900 N2034 W11230
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 030KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20100903/1500Z
WTPN31 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 001
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 109.6W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 109.6W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.4W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 109.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z//
END OF REPORT